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Qi Jiang

Research statement

Making early childhood programs work where they are hardest to run

My research asks a single practical question from four directions: what would it take for every young child in a low-resource setting to arrive at school ready to learn, and for the adults raising them to be well enough to help? Answering it requires evidence about children, about caregivers, about delivery systems, and about whether our measurements can be trusted at all.

10 figures, redrawn from the papers

Every number is transcribed from the published text, not read off the original artwork.

  1. 01Roughly two in five children, and the reason whyEarly learning
  2. 02Two thirds of children, and almost all of it is schoolEarly learning
  3. 03What that costs on a maths testEarly learning
  4. 04The gap that parental schooling opensEarly learning
  5. 05Perinatal mental health is a household fact firstCaregivers
  6. 06How a child's bad night reaches the relationshipCaregivers
  7. 07What parental training moves — and where it is delivered mattersScale & delivery
  8. 08A trial built to answer which half is doing the workScale & delivery
  9. 09Measured down, reported upMeasurement
  10. 10The screener gets worse exactly where it is used mostMeasurement
§ 01Early learning

Early childhood development and the home learning environment

The first thousand days set the trajectory for language, cognition, and schooling, yet in rural China nearly half of young children in our study sites show risk of cognitive or language delay. My earliest work with Stanford's Rural Education Action Program synthesized the evidence base for this problem: a systematic review and meta-analysis across twenty-nine English- and Chinese-language studies establishing both the scale of delay and the fact that parental training programs meaningfully move cognition, language, and social-emotional outcomes.

45%
at risk of cognitive delay across rural study sites
53,421
children in a national epidemiological study
29
studies synthesized in a bilingual meta-analysis

Since then I have worked on the mechanism rather than the headline. Using Language Environment Analysis (LENA) recorders in rural households, I study the home language environment directly — how much adults actually talk to children, how many conversational turns a day contains, and how those measured realities diverge from what caregivers believe is happening. That gap between the measured home environment and the perceived one turns out to be systematic, and it matters for how the field designs both interventions and evaluations.

Early learning

Roughly two in five children, and the reason why

Pooling every empirical study of early childhood development in rural China — 19 samples, 19,762 children under five, 14 provinces — gives both halves of the problem at once: how many children are behind, and how little of the interactive talk that prevents it actually happens at home.

Roughly two in five children, and the reason why. Pooled prevalence (%), 95% CI.
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
Children at risk of developmental delay
Language delay45.6%38.2% to 53.1%not reported
Cognitive delay44.8%39.8% to 49.9%not reported
Social-emotional delay36.5%31.1% to 41.9%not reported
Caregivers doing this in the past three days
Sang songs with the child44.8%29.5% to 60.1%not reported
Told the child a story25.2%9.5% to 40.9%not reported
Read a book to the child23.3%9.4% to 37.2%not reported

Random-effects meta-analysis of studies conducted in low- and middle-income rural communities and migrant communities, mostly in Central and Western China. Redrawn for the web from the published pooled estimates.

SourceEmmers D, Jiang Q, Xue H, et al. Early childhood development and parental training interventions in rural China: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Global Health. 2021;6(8):e005578. Open access →

The through-line is a question that belongs as much to education as to public health: what are the conditions under which a child arrives at school ready to learn, and which of those conditions are actually within the reach of policy?

Early learning

Two thirds of children, and almost all of it is school

In a pooled epidemiological sample of 53,421 school-aged children across China, 68% screen at risk for at least one type of anxiety. Broken apart, that headline is carried almost entirely by one subtype — anxiety about learning itself. This is a fact about classrooms before it is a fact about clinics.

Two thirds of children, and almost all of it is school. Share of children screening at risk (%).
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
Anxiety subtypes — 34,558 children
Any type of anxiety68%not reportednot reported
Learning anxiety59%not reportednot reported
Body anxiety19%not reportednot reported
Self-blaming anxiety18%not reportednot reported
Sensitivity tendency13%not reportednot reported
Phobias11%not reportednot reported
Social anxiety7%not reportednot reported
Generalised anxiety6%not reportednot reported
Impulsive tendency3%not reportednot reported
Loneliness2%not reportednot reported
Depression — 2,679 children
At risk of depression20%not reportednot reported

Screening prevalence, not clinical diagnosis. The two panels come from different sub-samples of the pooled dataset, so their sizes are given separately; subtypes overlap, which is why they do not sum to the 'any anxiety' figure. The source reports standard deviations rather than confidence intervals, so no intervals are drawn.

SourceJiang Q, She X, Dill S-E, et al. Depressive and anxiety symptoms among children and adolescents in rural China: a large-scale epidemiological study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;19(9):5026. Open access →

Early learning

What that costs on a maths test

The same study links each symptom to a standardised maths score, holding demographics and school fixed effects constant. Depression and maths anxiety are each worth about a third of a standard deviation — large enough that a mental health screen is also, in effect, an academic one.

What that costs on a maths test. Association with standardised maths score (SD), 95% CI.
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
Depression and anxiety overall
Depression−0.32−0.47 to −0.17<0.01
Any type of anxiety−0.14−0.16 to −0.11<0.01
Generalised anxiety−0.07−0.11 to −0.02<0.01
By anxiety subtype
Loneliness−0.24−0.32 to −0.17<0.01
Body anxiety−0.15−0.19 to −0.12<0.01
Phobias−0.15−0.19 to −0.12<0.01
Learning anxiety−0.12−0.15 to −0.10<0.01
Social anxiety−0.06−0.10 to −0.010.02
Self-blaming anxiety0.060.03 to 0.09<0.01
Per one SD of maths anxiety
Maths anxiety−0.30−0.33 to −0.27<0.01

Ordinary least squares with demographic controls and school fixed effects; standard errors clustered within school. Intervals are derived here as the published coefficient ± 1.96 × its published cluster-robust standard error. Self-blaming anxiety is the one symptom associated with higher scores. Two subtypes whose coefficients round to within a hundredth of zero, sensitivity tendency and impulsive tendency, are not shown.

SourceJiang Q, She X, Dill S-E, et al. Depressive and anxiety symptoms among children and adolescents in rural China: a large-scale epidemiological study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;19(9):5026. Open access →

Early learning

The gap that parental schooling opens

Sorting the same children by background shows where the risk actually concentrates. Being a girl or being older moves depression risk by two or three percentage points. Having parents who did not finish junior high moves it by eight or nine — the largest gradient in the study, and the one schools can least afford to treat as a clinical matter.

The gap that parental schooling opens. Share at risk of depression (%).
ComparisonGroupsLower risk groupHigher risk groupGap
Father's schoolingFinished junior high vs did not16%25%9 pp
Mother's schoolingFinished junior high vs did not15%23%8 pp
Household wealthAbove average vs below17%23%6 pp
SexBoys vs girls19%22%3 pp
School stageElementary vs junior high19%21%2 pp (not significant)

Screening prevalence of depression risk by subgroup. Gaps for schooling, wealth and sex are significant; the elementary-to-junior-high difference is not, and is drawn hollow. Percentage-point gaps are as published and may differ from the rounded endpoints by one point.

SourceJiang Q, She X, Dill S-E, et al. Depressive and anxiety symptoms among children and adolescents in rural China: a large-scale epidemiological study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;19(9):5026. Open access →

Related work — 9 papers

Conference

Human Capital and the Development Path from Middle Income to High Income: The Case of China

Scott Rozelle, Dorien Emmers, Qi Jiang, Huan Wang, Yiwei Qian, Sean Sylvia

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists · 2024

Peer-reviewed

Early childhood development and parental training interventions in rural China: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Dorien Emmers, Qi Jiang, Hao Xue, Yue Zhang, Yunting Zhang, Yingxue Zhao, Bin Liu, Sarah-Eve Dill, Yiwei Qian, Nele Warrinnier, Hannah Johnstone, Jianhua Cai, Xiaoli Wang, Lei Wang, Renfu Luo, Guirong Li, Jiajia Xu, Ming Liu, Yaqing Huang, Wenjie Shan, Zhihui Li, Yu Zhang, Sean Sylvia, Yue Ma, Alexis Medina, Scott Rozelle

BMJ Global Health, 6(8), e005578 · 2021

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005578Roughly two in five children, and the reason whyWhat parental training moves — and where it is delivered matters

§ 02Caregivers

Caregiver mental health as a determinant of early learning

Nearly a quarter of the pregnant women and new mothers we surveyed in rural Sichuan showed symptoms of depression, anxiety, or stress. What predicted those symptoms was not primarily individual pathology but household structure: decision-making power, family conflict, and the presence or absence of social support. Perinatal mental health, in other words, is a social and institutional fact before it is a clinical one.

1,664
caregivers in a 100-village cluster-randomized trial
23%
of perinatal women with any mental health symptom
1,027
pregnant women and new mothers surveyed in rural Sichuan

This has direct consequences for intervention design. In a cluster-randomized trial across one hundred villages, village parenting centers that improved children's environments produced no overall improvement in caregivers' mental health — with heterogeneous effects by socioeconomic status and by whether the primary caregiver was a mother or a grandmother. The lesson is not that parenting programs fail, but that adding a child-facing component does not automatically support the adult delivering the care, and that grandparent caregivers are a distinct and understudied population.

Caregivers

Perinatal mental health is a household fact first

Among 1,027 pregnant women and new mothers in rural Sichuan, what predicted depression, anxiety and stress was not primarily individual pathology. It was who gets to decide things at home, how much conflict there is, and whether anyone is there to help. Conflict pushes the odds right; standing and support pull them left.

Perinatal mental health is a household fact first. Adjusted odds ratio, 95% CI, log scale.
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
Family conflict raises the odds
Stress1.681.41 to 2.00<0.001
Depression1.531.30 to 1.81<0.001
Anxiety1.341.15 to 1.56<0.001
Decision-making power lowers them
Stress0.760.63 to 0.900.002
Depression0.710.60 to 0.83<0.001
So does social support
Anxiety0.760.63 to 0.910.002
Stress0.660.53 to 0.84<0.001
Depression0.560.46 to 0.69<0.001

Multivariate logistic regressions, one per outcome, reported per one point of each factor-analysis index. Adjusted for maternal age and education, whether the woman is from the village, past and planned out-migration, first pregnancy, previous miscarriage, husband's education, and a family asset index; models for new mothers add infant characteristics. Associations not reported as significant in the source are omitted. Redrawn for the web from the published odds ratios.

SourceJiang Q, Guo Y, Zhang E, et al. Perinatal mental health problems in rural China: the role of social factors. Frontiers in Psychiatry. 2021;12:636875. Open access →

A continuing thread in my work is the causal version of this question: whether and how caregiver mental health moderates who benefits from early childhood interventions — compliance, dose, responsive stimulation, and ultimately child outcomes.

Caregivers

How a child's bad night reaches the relationship

In 776 rural households, children who slept worse had caregivers who reported both less warmth and more intrusion. Caregiver depression turned out to carry only one of those two paths — it explains the intrusion, not the loss of warmth. The null half is the useful half: it says which mechanism an intervention would actually be acting on.

How a child's bad night reaches the relationship. Path coefficients.
OutcomePathCoefficientSignificant
Perceived intrusionChild sleep difficulty → Caregiver depression+1.38yes
Perceived intrusionCaregiver depression → Perceived intrusion+0.31yes
Perceived intrusionChild sleep difficulty → Perceived intrusion, direct+2.10yes
Perceived warmthChild sleep difficulty → Caregiver depression+1.38yes
Perceived warmthCaregiver depression → Perceived warmth+0.06no
Perceived warmthChild sleep difficulty → Perceived warmth, direct−1.13yes

Ordinary least squares path coefficients, N = 776 children aged 5–25 months, with child and household controls and standard errors clustered at the village level. Depression is the eight-item Patient Health Questionnaire; warmth and intrusion are the two standard axes of the caregiver–child relationship. Dashed path = not significant. Redrawn for the web from the published path model.

SourceXiao Y, Wang B, Li S, Jiang Q, Zhang H, Rozelle S. Early childhood sleep patterns and association with caregiver–child relationships in rural China: caregiver depression as a mediator. Journal of Pediatric Psychology. 2026;51(5):383–392. Open access →

Related work — 11 papers

§ 03Scale & delivery

Designing interventions that survive contact with a delivery system

I help lead the design and evaluation of the Thinking Healthy Extended Program (THEP), an adaptation of the WHO's Thinking Healthy curriculum for caregivers of infants and toddlers. THEP is being evaluated in a four-arm, 125-village factorial cluster-randomized trial that crosses parenting stimulation with caregiver mental health support — designed from the outset to be delivered and supervised by local agents of the All-China Women's Federation, the nationwide government organization already responsible for women's and children's welfare.

125
villages in a four-arm factorial cluster-randomized trial
4
arms: parenting, mental health, combined, control
50
in-depth interviews on delivery-platform acceptability

That design choice is the research question. An intervention that only works when delivered by trained psychologists is not a policy; it is a demonstration. So alongside the effectiveness trial I run process evaluation and human-centered design work: what fidelity looks like when non-specialists deliver a mental health curriculum, where facilitators adapt the material and why, what dose families actually receive, and which frictions — time, childcare, stigma, distance — determine whether a mother attends at all.

Scale & delivery

What parental training moves — and where it is delivered matters

Across ten randomised trials and 13,766 children, parental training raises child development and, more strongly, the parenting behaviour that is supposed to produce it. Splitting the same cognitive effect by delivery model shows home visits outperforming centre-based programmes — a design question, not a curriculum one.

What parental training moves — and where it is delivered matters. Pooled intervention effect (SD), 95% CI.
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
Child outcomes
Cognitive development0.260.18 to 0.35<0.05
Language development0.170.06 to 0.28<0.05
Social-emotional development0.140.03 to 0.24<0.05
Caregiver outcomes
Stimulating parenting practices0.390.24 to 0.54<0.05
Parenting knowledge0.200.11 to 0.28<0.05
Cognitive effect, by delivery model
Home-based programmes0.340.21 to 0.48<0.05
Centre-based programmes0.190.11 to 0.27<0.05

Ten studies evaluating nine randomised controlled trials in six provinces; psychosocial stimulation delivered one-on-one over six months to two years. Between-group heterogeneity for home- versus centre-based delivery, p < 0.05. Redrawn for the web from the published pooled estimates.

SourceEmmers D, Jiang Q, Xue H, et al. Early childhood development and parental training interventions in rural China: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Global Health. 2021;6(8):e005578. Open access →

Complementary qualitative work asks the same question of a different delivery platform: in-depth interviews with fifty mothers in Shanghai on whether community and township health centers are an acceptable and appropriate place to receive postnatal mental health support, and what would have to change for them to use it.

Scale & delivery

A trial built to answer which half is doing the work

Most combined early childhood programmes are evaluated as a single package, which tells you that something worked but not what. The Thinking Healthy Extended Program is instead randomised as a two-by-two: parenting and caregiver mental health are switched on independently across 125 villages, so each component — and the interaction between them — is separately identified. Every session is delivered by local agents of the All-China Women's Federation rather than by hired specialists.

A trial built to answer which half is doing the work. Allocation of villages across trial arms.
ArmContentVillages
Pure controlNo intervention50
Mental health onlyFortnightly group sessions25
Parenting onlyWeekly one-on-one sessions25
IntegratedBoth components25
TotalAll arms125

Cluster-randomised at the village level with the control arm twice the size of each intervention arm. The parenting curriculum is adapted from Reach Up and Learn; the mental health curriculum from the WHO's Thinking Healthy Programme and its peer-delivered extension. Redrawn for the web from the published protocol.

SourceJiang Q, Wang B, Qian Y, et al. Effectiveness of a government-led, multiarm intervention on early childhood development and caregiver mental health: a study protocol for a factorial cluster-randomised trial in rural China. BMJ Open. 2023;13(11):e076644. Open access →

Related work — 5 papers

Peer-reviewed

Early childhood development and parental training interventions in rural China: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Dorien Emmers, Qi Jiang, Hao Xue, Yue Zhang, Yunting Zhang, Yingxue Zhao, Bin Liu, Sarah-Eve Dill, Yiwei Qian, Nele Warrinnier, Hannah Johnstone, Jianhua Cai, Xiaoli Wang, Lei Wang, Renfu Luo, Guirong Li, Jiajia Xu, Ming Liu, Yaqing Huang, Wenjie Shan, Zhihui Li, Yu Zhang, Sean Sylvia, Yue Ma, Alexis Medina, Scott Rozelle

BMJ Global Health, 6(8), e005578 · 2021

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005578Roughly two in five children, and the reason whyWhat parental training moves — and where it is delivered matters

§ 04Measurement

Measuring what matters: instruments, bias, and evidence quality

Much of what the field knows about children in low- and middle-income countries rests on instruments developed elsewhere and on what caregivers report about their own children. Both assumptions deserve scrutiny. An early validation study examined the concurrent validity of the Ages and Stages Questionnaire against the Bayley Scales of Infant Development III in China — necessary groundwork for any claim built on ASQ scores in this setting.

137
households with objective LENA language measurement
1,831
children in a screening-instrument validation study
18.7%
sensitivity of the ASQ-3 cognitive screen at 19–24 months

More recently I have documented a systematic perception bias: caregivers experiencing depressive and anxiety symptoms tend to overestimate both their children's language development and their own verbal input to those children. Because caregiver mental health is itself correlated with the outcomes we care about, self-report measurement can bias estimates in exactly the populations interventions are meant to serve.

Measurement

Measured down, reported up

In 137 rural households, caregivers with mental health symptoms had children whose language was objectively lower on LENA audio recordings — and at the same time overestimated that language in their own reports. Both halves come from the same regressions on the same sample.

Measured down, reported up. Adjusted standardised coefficient (SD), 95% CI.
ComparisonEstimate95% confidence intervalp value
What the recorder measured
Stress → child vocalisations−0.75−1.27 to −0.24<0.01
Stress → vocabulary (CDI)−0.57−1.00 to −0.15<0.01
Anxiety → conversational turns−0.54−0.76 to −0.31<0.01
Depression → conversational turns−0.51−0.91 to −0.120.011
Anxiety → child vocalisations−0.44−0.69 to −0.18<0.01
What the caregiver reported
Depression → overstates home talk0.660.40 to 0.93<0.01
Anxiety → overstates child language0.440.10 to 0.770.012
Depression → overstates child language0.26−0.02 to 0.540.064

Each row is a separate regression (N = 137 households, children aged 16–24 months), adjusted for caregiver age and education, child age and sex, whether the mother is the primary caregiver, household size, and a family asset index. Hollow point = not significant at the 0.05 level. Redrawn for the web from the published estimates.

SourceJiang Q, Qian Y, Feng T, et al. Caregiver mental health is associated with early childhood language outcomes and perception bias in rural China. Scientific Reports. 2026;16(1). Open access →

Taking measurement seriously is not a methodological footnote. It determines which programs look effective, which populations look well-served, and where public money goes.

Measurement

The screener gets worse exactly where it is used most

The Ages and Stages Questionnaire is the instrument much of the field runs on, because the diagnostic alternative is slow and expensive. Against the Bayley-III in 1,831 rural children, its sensitivity falls as children get older while its specificity climbs — so in the oldest cohort the cognitive screen misses roughly four of every five children who are genuinely delayed.

The screener gets worse exactly where it is used most. Agreement with the Bayley-III (%), by child age in months, one-SD cut-off.
DomainMeasure5–1213–1819–24
CognitiveSensitivity51.7%38.3%18.7%
CognitiveSpecificity64.5%78%84.4%
LanguageSensitivity47.1%48.7%28%
LanguageSpecificity64.6%74.9%90%
MotorSensitivity81.3%80%50%
MotorSpecificity39.9%54.4%67.9%

Sensitivity is the share of children flagged by the Bayley-III that the ASQ-3 also flags; specificity is the share of unaffected children it correctly clears. Both are computed at the one-SD cut-off in a sample of 1,831 children aged 5–24 months. Redrawn for the web from the published agreement table.

SourceYue A, Jiang Q, Wang B, et al. Concurrent validity of the Ages and Stages Questionnaire and the Bayley Scales of Infant Development III in China. PLOS ONE. 2019;14(9):e0221675. Open access →

Related work — 2 papers

A complete list of publications, including working papers and conference work, is on the publications page.